Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(525 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,204.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,204.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(18.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,936$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,250.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,250.1\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,921$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(420 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,894.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,894.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $415$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $234,531$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,243.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(228,243.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,774$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(6.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,677.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,677.8\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,976$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,897,380$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,869,901.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,869,901.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109,132$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,793.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106,793.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,296,542$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $284,734$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282,944.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(282,944.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,344$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(5.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,279.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,279.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $243,162$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,939$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,629.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,629.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,639$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(524 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,523.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,523.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,300$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $184,924$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,414.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(176,414.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,658$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,391.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,391.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,786$ on 2020-06-05