Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Luxembourg
  • Taiwan*
  • Austria
  • Thailand

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(525 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,204.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,204.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(18.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31$ on 2020-06-05

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,936$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(9.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,250.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,250.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,921$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(420 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,894.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,894.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $415$ on 2020-06-05

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,531$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,243.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(228,243.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,774$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(6.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,677.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,677.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,976$ on 2020-06-05

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,897,380$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,869,901.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,869,901.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109,132$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,793.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106,793.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,296,542$ on 2020-06-05

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $284,734$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282,944.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(282,944.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,344$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,279.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,279.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243,162$ on 2020-06-05

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,939$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,629.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,629.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,639$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(524 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,523.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,523.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,300$ on 2020-06-05

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $184,924$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,414.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(176,414.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,658$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,391.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,391.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,786$ on 2020-06-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 99%
Taiwan* recovered 98%
Croatia recovered 98%
Austria recovered 95%
Thailand recovered 95%
Niger recovered 93%
Malta recovered 91%
Japan recovered 91%
Germany recovered 89%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Andorra recovered 88%
Denmark recovered 83%
Morocco recovered 82%
Chad recovered 72%
Uruguay recovered 72%
Lithuania recovered 69%
Italy recovered 66%
Turkey recovered 63%
Georgia recovered 61%
San Marino recovered 56%
Jamaica recovered 53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 53%
Serbia recovered 42%
Romania recovered 40%
Singapore recovered 38%
Qatar recovered 31%
Bulgaria recovered 29%
Kuwait recovered 23%
Algeria recovered 12%
Tajikistan recovered 3%
Canada recovered 3%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,032$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,878.4}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,878.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(29.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.9}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-06-05

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $443$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(436.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-06-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-06-05

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,843$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,921.9}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,921.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $672$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{644.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(644.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-06-05

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,102$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,002.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 19.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,002.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(30.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.1}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 10.8)}}\) (asimptote \(56.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-06-05